Our call: U.S. bank loans to companies will exceed $2,952.9 billion in the week ending 18 November 2026
Commercial and industrial loans at all U.S. commercial banks are the clearest weekly read on how much credit businesses are drawing to run and grow, and the series has been climbing for a year. Lenders and owners watch it because it shows whether companies are borrowing to expand, and whether banks are willing to lend into that expansion. This is the first dated call in the series, and it sets a number that can be checked against the Federal Reserve Board's own release.
The call, made 4 October 2026. Commercial and industrial loans at all U.S. commercial banks, in billions of dollars (series ID: TOTCI), will read above 2,952.9 for the observation dated 2026-11-18. Our probability: 65%. Resolution date: 2026-12-02. Resolution source: fred.stlouisfed.org.
The reading today. Commercial and industrial loans at all U.S. commercial banks stood at $2,952.9 billion in the week ending 23 September 2026, according to the Federal Reserve Board (H.8 release). That is down $2.3 billion from the week ending 16 September 2026 and up $260.8 billion from the week ending 24 September 2025.
The series measures the loans U.S. commercial banks hold to businesses for working capital, equipment and other operating needs, excluding loans secured by real estate. The call would be wrong if the reading for the week ending 18 November 2026 comes in at or below 2,952.9, which would mean the series fell back over the eight weeks from the latest reading. A single week can move the series by $2.3 billion in either direction, so the call is a judgment about the direction of the next two months rather than about any one week's size.
How we set the odds. We counted how often the series was higher eight weeks later across the ten years through 23 September 2026: it was higher in 333 of 514 spans, or 65%. That share is the probability stated above. Over the latest 12 spans it was higher in 9.
For lenders, the series is a measure of demand for the loans they make, and a rising reading means more businesses are drawing credit to fund payroll, inventory and equipment. For owners of services companies, it is a measure of how much the businesses around them are borrowing, and a rising reading usually means customers and competitors are spending. A fall in the series would point the other way, and either move would show up in the weekly release before it shows up in quarterly earnings.
What the series shows is the money behind the change under way in services, and it is the reason our call points up. As software takes on more of the work customers pay for, the firms doing that work still borrow from U.S. commercial banks to fund payroll, equipment and the build-out of the systems they run on, and the $260.8 billion the series has added over the past year is the record of that borrowing. A lender reading the series sees the demand for the loans it makes to those firms, and an owner sees the credit the businesses around it are drawing to keep growing.
Between now and the observation date, the weekly H.8 release is the thing to watch, because each reading adds a data point to the direction the call is betting on. The next readings arrive each Friday, and the observation dated 18 November 2026 is the one the call will be scored against.
Scorecard. This is the first dated call. Each call is scored on its resolution date with a Brier score, the squared gap between our probability and the outcome.