Our call: U.S. bank loans to companies will exceed $2,959.4 billion in December 2026
Commercial and industrial loans at U.S. commercial banks are the clearest single measure of whether lenders are putting money behind the companies that buy, build and run the services economy. The series counts the loans banks hold to businesses for working capital, equipment and other operating needs, so when it rises, lenders are extending more credit to the firms that software is changing. Our call is that the monthly reading will move above $2,959.4 billion by the December 2026 observation, and we put the probability at 64%. The series matters to lenders because it is the broadest gauge of the credit they are extending, and it matters to owners because it shows whether banks are still willing to fund the firms that software is changing.
The call, made 18 October 2026. Commercial and industrial loans at all U.S. commercial banks, monthly, in billions of dollars (series ID: BUSLOANS), will read above 2,959.4 for the observation dated 2026-12-01. Our probability: 64%. Resolution date: 2027-02-10. Resolution source: fred.stlouisfed.org.
The reading today. Commercial and industrial loans at all U.S. commercial banks, monthly stood at $2,959.4 billion in September 2026, according to the Federal Reserve Board (H.8 release). That is up $24.5 billion from August 2026 and up $268.4 billion from September 2025.
The series measures the stock of loans U.S. commercial banks hold to businesses for working capital, equipment and other operating needs, excluding loans secured by real estate, and the Federal Reserve Board publishes it each month in its H.8 release. The call would be wrong if the December reading comes in at or below $2,959.4 billion, which would mean bank lending to companies stalled or fell over the three months from September. A reading above the line would mean lenders kept extending credit to businesses, and a reading below it would mean the opposite, so the call is a direct bet on whether the credit that funds the services economy keeps growing.
How we set the odds. We counted how often the series was higher three months later across the ten years through 1 September 2026: it was higher in 76 of 118 spans, or 64%. That share is the probability stated above. Over the latest 12 spans it was higher in 12.
What could move the series before the observation date is the pace of bank lending to companies over the next three months. For a lender, the number to watch is whether businesses keep drawing on credit for working capital and equipment, because that is what pushes the stock of loans higher. For an owner of a services company, the same reading matters because it shows whether banks are still willing to fund the firms that software is changing, and a slowdown in lending would show up first in this series.
What to watch between now and the resolution date is the weekly H.8 release, which updates the same measure every week and gives an early read on whether the monthly figure is tracking above the line. The December observation is the one that decides the call, and the resolution date is 10 February 2027, when the final reading is confirmed against the source.
Scorecard. Made 4 October 2026 on TOTCI, above 2,952.9 by 2026-11-18, probability 65%: open, resolves 2026-12-02.