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Autonomous companies to 2028: the agent-managed company, its legal wrapper and the money rails underneath

Whether a company run day to day by software gets a recognised legal home in the United States, how it would hold and move money, and the odds we give each path at December 2027 and December 2028.

Published Data as of 9 Nov 2026, about 1:45 PM ET

Next update the earlier of (a) a public record that Delaware has answered the House Oversight Committee's 26 October records request, or (b) the first Delaware General Assembly legislative day of January 2027 — and in any case by 15 Jan 2027.

A note on names. Delaware's proposal began as the "Artificially Intelligent Company" in the April 2026 public draft, became the "Artificial Intelligence Company" (AIC) in the June 2026 draft bill, and was rebranded the agent-managed company (AMC) by October 2026, according to Bloomberg Law's 7 October Delaware Brief and the University of Delaware's Weinberg Center on 8 November. Fortune, the House Oversight Committee letter and most coverage still say AIC. This page uses AMC for the proposal and quotes AIC where a source does.

Key findings

Not law, not filed, not formable. You cannot form an AMC today. In remarks reported on 30 October, a member of the drafting subcommittee said the draft had not been sent to the governor or the legislature because the wider AI Commission still has questions. January 2027 is a stated target, not a filed bill.

30 / 24 / 36. The June draft gives the sandbox 30 months from implementation, caps each test at 24 months, and lets the whole Act expire 36 months after enactment.

"Except for the business of banking." Both drafts carve banking out. An authorised AMC would still need someone else's rails to hold cash and pay counterparties.

$274,000. What Fireblocks, citing the agenteconomy.to tracker, reports as the October 2026 settled value on x402, the best-known agent payment protocol, across 5.1 million transactions. Agent payments are real. They are still small.

Headline judgment

Through 2027 the likeliest state is a drafted, debated and unlaunched AMC. By December 2028, a live sandbox entity is close to even with a stall. Meanwhile the activity the wrapper is meant to house keeps growing on payment rails the draft does not touch.

We give a stall in Delaware 54% at December 2027. By December 2028 a sandbox-authorised AMC is live on 30% of paths and a stall is on 33%. Federal scrutiny is far more likely to stay a records request than to become a statute. Each column sums to 100.

Panel A: Where Delaware's agent-managed company stands

ScenarioDec 2027Dec 2028
Live: sandbox Act enacted, and at least one sandbox-authorised AMC holds a registration number7%30%
Enacted, not live: law signed, but committee, rules or first approval still pending26%15%
Stalled: not enacted; still in commission, drafting or committee54%33%
Dropped or blocked: Delaware publicly abandons it, or a federal law stops it13%22%
Column total100100

Panel B: Federal posture toward state AI-entity and liability laws

PostureDec 2027Dec 2028
Scrutiny only: letters, records requests and hearings, but no federal statute74%59%
Federal standards, states left alone: a federal AI statute that does not reach state entity law18%28%
Federal limits on states: a federal statute that limits state AI rules in a way that reaches AI-entity or liability-shield laws8%13%
Column total100100

Odds are FD estimates: probabilities from a simulation of chained steps, each with a low, central and high value, run over 200,000 seeded paths (seed 20261109). The steps are in Sources and method. Percentages are rounded by largest remainder so each column sums to 100.

01

Bottom line

  1. 01.
    The AMC does not exist yet, and the first real gate is introduction in 2027, not enactment. Neither draft has been filed as a bill. Delaware Public Media reported on 30 October, citing Rep. Krista Griffith of the drafting subcommittee, that the broader AI Commission "has questions about the draft" and so it "hasn't been sent on to Meyer or the state legislature yet." The Weinberg Center wrote on 8 November that Delaware is exploring legislation "with a proposed introduction to the General Assembly in January 2027." The June draft is headed "153rd General Assembly". A 2027 filing would fall in the next General Assembly, which is an FD inference from the two-year session numbering, so the bill would have to be filed fresh. FD estimate: introduced by 30 June 2027 on 60% of paths (range 41–78); signed by 31 December 2027 on 33% (14–59); a first sandbox-authorised AMC holds a registration number by 31 December 2027 on 7% (1–21), and by 31 December 2028 on 30% (9–63).
  2. 02.
    "Thirty months" is three different clocks. The window for a full-length test is the first six months. The June 2026 draft bill (36 pages, footer "Draft: 06/02/2026") sets the clocks. The sandbox "exists until [the date 30 months following the date of implementation]". Implementation comes on the earlier of six months after enactment or a published notice. Each participant must "complete the test of the innovation within 24 months" of getting a registration number. The Act itself "expires 36 months after this Act's enactment into law." FD estimate: if implementation lands on the six-month backstop, 6 + 30 = 36 months, so the sandbox and the Act end on the same day. Because a test can run 24 months inside a 30-month sandbox, 30 − 24 = 6, and only an entity registered in the first six months after implementation can run a full-length test before the sandbox closes. Press accounts compress this: Fortune says the program "sunsets in 30 months"; WHYY says organisations "would have 30 months to apply"; The D&O Diary says a "30-month test period starting from the passage of the legislation." Each is a partial reading of the same text.
  3. 03.
    As drafted in June, this reads as a business-to-business pilot sponsored by a Delaware entity. It is not a robot startup anyone can open. Under the June draft, an eligible applicant must be "an entity organized under the laws of this State". "Entity" excludes individuals. The applicant becomes the AMC's sole member. A "counterparty" is defined as "an entity that enters into transactions with a sandbox-authorized AIC", and an innovation "may only be tested with a counterparty." Before any interaction, the AMC must disclose:
    • its registration number;
    • that the state "does not endorse or recommend" it;
    • the exact end date;
    • how to complain to the Sandbox Administrator or the Attorney General.

    Counterparties are also deemed to accept the Court of Chancery as exclusive forum. Two sources conflict here. Fortune's description of the single member as "a person or an entity" matches Chapter 81 on its own, where a member may be an individual. Griffith's statement that sandbox companies "won't do business with the general public" matches the counterparty definition. Against that reading, the June draft defines an "innovation" as using an AI agent "to provide a benefit or otherwise to a counterparty or the public at large" (§ 8001(9)), and on 6 October the Secretary of State said the sandbox eligibility criteria had not yet been written (Delaware Business Times, 28 Oct). The April draft has neither restriction. Whether a final bill bars all dealings with individuals is open.

  4. 04.
    The wrapper excludes banking, so the money has to move on someone else's rails. Those rails are being built on a different clock. Both drafts allow "any lawful purpose … except for the business of banking." The April draft defines the cash an AMC must hold against its minimum capital as "money, currency or a credit balance in any demand or deposit account." Cash equivalents are marketable securities with maturities of three months or less. Neither draft mentions digital assets or stablecoins. FD reading: an AMC would need a deposit account somewhere to meet its own capital test, and whether a payment-stablecoin balance counts is unresolved. On the rails side:
    • Stablecoin law. The federal stablecoin statute is expected to take effect on 18 January 2027 (Treasury, 17 Aug 2026); the OCC's final rule takes effect the same day (OCC Bulletin 2026-50).
    • Agent payment volume. Fireblocks, citing agenteconomy.to, reports more than 196 million x402 transactions and more than $42 million settled since launch, but only $274,000 in October 2026.
    • Card networks. Mastercard launched Agent Pay for Machines on 10 June 2026 with more than 30 named partners.

    The hook that started it was an April 2026 post by Mark Cuban urging a state to allow incorporation "using an AI agent and stablecoins". The governor's account replied "On it!", per Spotlight Delaware and Ars Technica. The draft that followed took up the agent and left out the stablecoin.

  5. 05.
    Liability moves from people to capital and insurance. Insurance is the input nobody has priced. Fortune describes the shield this way: the member "is shielded from the AIC's debts, except where it fails to capitalize the company or uses it to commit fraud or a willful violation of law." Insurance Business (27 October) writes that "a claimant may only be able to recover from the AIC's own assets and its insurance." It reports that a review of state filings counted 2,369 generative-AI exclusion records in force across 49 states by mid-2026, and that W.R. Berkley has added an absolute AI exclusion to its D&O, E&O and fiduciary products. The D&O Diary (28 July) argues that any policy protecting an AMC "would by definition be an entity-only product." FD estimate: a named insurer or managing general agent announces cover written for an AI-managed entity by 31 December 2027 on 20% (8–35).
  6. 06.
    Federal attention is a records request, not a finding, and the answer was due today. On 26 October the chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform asked Delaware's governor for four categories of records from 1 January 2025 "as soon as possible but no later than November 9, 2026":
    1. 1.all documents and communications on AIC policy development, "including internal AI chat logs";
    2. 2.ethics, consulting and other agreements with outside contributors;
    3. 3.records on safety concerns, harms and efforts to limit AI liability;
    4. 4.all drafts and comments.

    Its stated purpose is to "inform possible federal legislative efforts including proposals to appropriately limit state AI regulatory initiatives." The governor's office said it had received the letter and was reviewing it, per Ars Technica and Delaware Public Media. As of about 1:45 PM ET on 9 November we found no public record that Delaware has responded, asked for more time or produced documents. FD estimate: no federal AI statute of either kind is enacted by December 2027 on 74% of paths. A statute that limits state AI rules in a way that reaches entity laws comes on 8% by December 2027 and 13% by December 2028.

  7. 07.
    For owners, lenders and buyers, the asset is the record of who authorised what, with or without an AMC. Both drafts require the AI agent to document every action: in a "log" in April, and in a "signed record" in June. The June sandbox chapter defines records to include "all information and data that an AI agent receives as input or creates as output", requires them to be kept for two years after participation ends, and exempts records submitted to the sandbox administrator or committee from Delaware's public-records law (§ 8011(a)). That is the connected operating history the company-data market already pays for, and the authority trail that lenders and insurers will ask for first. The practical route in 2026 is the one that exists: a human-managed company that runs agents, keeps an agent inventory, writes authority limits and reads its policies for AI exclusions.
02

Indicators

Grades describe the source, not the conclusion. Record: a statute, draft bill text, docket, regulatory bulletin or primary letter. Party: an organisation's or official's own claim, including claims quoted in reporting. Crowd: commentary, aggregators, explainers and markets. Every row was opened on 9 Nov 2026.

IndicatorLatest readingSourceGrade
AMC legal statusNot enacted; not filed; cannot be formedHarvard Business Services explainer; Delaware Public Media, 30 Oct 2026crowd · party
Draft sent to governor or legislature?No; wider AI Commission "has questions"Delaware Public Media, 30 Oct 2026, citing Rep. Griffithparty
Target for introductionJanuary 2027, "proposed"Weinberg Center, 8 Nov 2026party
Current nameAgent-managed company (AMC), rebranded from AICBloomberg Law Delaware Brief, 7 Oct 2026; Weinberg Center, 8 Nov 2026crowd · party
Public April draft"Artificially Intelligent Company Act", Chapter 51, 34 pages; file metadata 2 Apr 2026publicmeetings.delaware.gov Document 85240record
June draft billChapter 80 sandbox + Chapter 81 AIC Act, 36 pages, footer "Draft: 06/02/2026"PDF hosted by Spotlight Delawarerecord
Minimum capitalApril: "$[100,000]", bracketed, with note "Consider modifying to include a formula"; June: "the amount determined by the Secretary of State"Both draftsrecord
Annual tax per AMC$1,000, due 1 June after the year of formation (June draft § 81-802)June draftrecord
Vote neededThree-fifths of each house (tax or licence fee)June draft synopsisrecord
Sandbox length30 months from implementationJune draft § 8003(b)record
ImplementationEarlier of 6 months after enactment or published noticeJune draft Section 4record
Per-test limit24 months from registration numberJune draft § 8007(a)(2)record
Act expiry36 months after enactment unless extendedJune draft Section 5record
Application decision clockAdministrator 10 business days; committee 30 calendar days, one 30-day extension or a mutual extension up to 60June draft § 8006record
Sandbox Committee, votingSecretary of State (chair), Attorney General, Chief Justice, Chair of AI Commission, 2 lawyers and 2 AI practitioners appointed by the Governor, 2 appointed by the Secretary of State; plus 4 non-voting legislatorsJune draft § 8002record
Committee as described publicly"Secretary of State …, the Attorney General, the Chief Justice …, the chair of the state's AI Commission, and outside attorneys and technologists"Fortune, 14 Jul 2026party
Banking"any lawful purpose … except for the business of banking as defined in § 126 of Title 8"Both draftsrecord
Banking as reported"except for financial services"Delaware Public Media, 30 Oct 2026party (conflicts with text)
Sectors named for sandboxFintech, education, healthcareDelaware Public Media, 30 Oct 2026party
Oversight request4 categories; due 9 Nov 2026; covers 1 Jan 2025 to presentHouse Oversight letter, 26 Oct 2026record
Delaware responseOffice "received and is reviewing" the letter; no public response found by about 1:45 PM ET 9 NovArs Technica, 27 Oct; Delaware Public Media, 30 Oct; searches 9 Novparty
Delaware franchise baseMore than 2 million companies; taxes and fees more than $2 billion, about a third of state revenueSpotlight Delaware, 30 Jun 2026party
New Delaware entities, 2025334,461Secretary of State, as quoted by Ars Technicaparty
Wyoming DAO LLCArticles must state "to what extent the management will be conducted algorithmically"W.S. 17-31-104(e)record
Vermont BBLLC"may provide for its governance, in whole or in part, through blockchain technology"11 V.S.A. § 4173record
Stablecoin statute effective date18 January 2027Treasury, 17 Aug 2026 ("the expected effective date of the GENIUS Act"); OCC Bulletin 2026-50 (rule effective same day)record
OCC final rulePublished 23 Oct 2026; BSA/AML/OFAC rules left to separate rulemakingFederal Register 2026-21706; OCC Bulletin 2026-50record
x402 since launchMore than 196M transactions; more than $42M settled; 12 chainsFireblocks, 3 Nov 2026 (data: agenteconomy.to; Allium; Chainalysis)party
x402, October 20265.1M transactions worth $274,000Sameparty
Stablecoin payments, Jan–Sep 2026$482B, up 45% year on year; supply $305B at end-SeptemberAllium via Fireblocks, 3 Nov 2026party
Card-network agent railMastercard Agent Pay for Machines, 10 Jun 2026; more than 30 named participantsMastercardparty
Generative-AI exclusions2,369 exclusion records in force across 49 states by mid-2026Insurance Business, 27 Oct 2026crowd
Prediction market: crypto market-structure law before 1 Jan 202821¢ bid / 22¢ askKalshi KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-27JAN-28, 9 Nov 2026crowd
03

Charts

Only sourced figures. No series is invented.

Chart 1: How the proposal got here (dated events)

DateEventSource
23 Jul 2025Governor signs HJR 7, directing a sandbox framework for agentic AIHouse Oversight letter; legis.delaware.gov
22 Dec 2025AI Commission annual report: subcommittee "actively working towards a draft regulatory framework"Commission report, quoted in Oversight letter
2 Apr 2026File date of the public April draft, "Artificially Intelligent Company Act"PDF metadata, Document 85240
Apr 2026Cuban post on incorporating "using an AI agent and stablecoins"; governor's account replies "On it!"Spotlight Delaware; Ars Technica
2 Jun 2026Footer date of the 36-page draft bill (sandbox + AIC Act)Draft bill PDF
30 Jun 2026Spotlight Delaware reports the draft; "likely to be introduced … next year"Spotlight Delaware
14 Jul 2026Secretary of State and Norm Ai CEO publish the Fortune commentaryFortune
6 Oct 2026Weinberg Center conference, about 200 participantsWeinberg Center
7 Oct 2026Bloomberg Law reports rebrand to agent-managed companyDelaware Brief PDF
26 Oct 2026House Oversight records request, due 9 NovOversight letter
30 Oct 2026Draft not yet sent to governor or legislatureDelaware Public Media
8 Nov 2026"Proposed introduction … January 2027"Weinberg Center
9 Nov 2026Oversight deadline; no public response found by about 1:45 PM ETSearches, this run
18 Jan 2027Federal stablecoin statute effectiveTreasury; OCC

Chart 2: The sandbox clocks in the June draft

ClockLengthSection
Administrator completeness review and recommendation10 business days§ 8006(a)(2)
Committee decision30 calendar days (+30 once, or up to 60 by agreement)§ 8006(b)
Emergency rule lifespan unless adopted by committee60 days§ 8004(a)(2)
Notice before a test endsat least 30 days§ 8009(a)
Wind-down after endwithin 60 days§ 8009(a)
Records retention after participationat least 2 years§ 8010(a)
Replacement of a missing AI agent30 days§ 81-301(d)
Implementation after enactmentup to 6 monthsSection 4
Per-test maximum24 months§ 8007(a)(2)
Sandbox life from implementation30 months§ 8003(b)
Act life from enactment36 monthsSection 5
Committee final report after final sandbox periodwithin 6 months§ 8013(b)

FD estimate (arithmetic shown in Bottom line 02): full-length test window = 30 − 24 = 6 months after implementation; sandbox end at the backstop = 6 + 30 = 36 months after enactment.

Chart 3: April draft against June draft

ItemApril (Ch. 51)June (Ch. 80 + 81)
Name in statuteArtificially Intelligent Company ActArtificial Intelligence Company Act
Required name wording"Artificially Intelligent Company", "A.I.C." or "AIC"; no "trust" or "bank""Artificial Intelligence Company", "A.I.C." or "AIC"; no "trust" or "bank" (§ 81-106)
Sandbox terms in textPoints to a separate "Regulatory Sandbox Act" by placeholderFull sandbox chapter included
MemberNatural person or a Delaware corporation, LP, statutory trust or LLCIndividual or Delaware corporation, LP, statutory trust or LLC; inside the sandbox, applicant must be a Delaware entity
Minimum capital"$[100,000]", bracketed, formula suggestedSet by Secretary of State
Agent record"document any action it takes in a log""document any action the manager takes in a signed record"
Member liability exceptionfraud or "any knowing violation of law", or knowingly acting outside purposefraud or "any willful violation of law", or business the member "knew or should have known" was outside purpose; § 81-102(29) defines "willful violation of law" as one where the person "knew or should have known" the conduct was prohibited
DissolutionIncludes when the Regulatory Sandbox expires, terminates or is repealed; AG or SoS notice of conduct "contrary to public policy"Chancery dissolution for cause on application of a creditor, SoS or AG; Administrator may suspend, revoke and order dissolution (§ 8009(e))

FD reading: so June's "willful" exception is broader than April's "knowing", not narrower.

Chart 4: x402 settled value, four published readings (crowd)

MonthTransactionsSettled value
Nov 202552.6M$20.5M
Dec 202554.2M$9.4M
Feb 20264.1M$1.6M
Oct 20265.1M$274,000

Source: Fireblocks, "The Agent Economy by the Numbers", 3 Nov 2026 (data: agenteconomy.to; Allium; Chainalysis). Fireblocks attributes the late-2025 burst largely to a token minted through x402, and labels February 2026 a post-speculation low. Anicca (November 2026) cites a Visa/Artemis estimate of about $15M lifetime x402 volume, against more than $42M on agenteconomy.to. FD estimate: $274,000 ÷ 5.1M ≈ $0.054 per transaction in October 2026.

04

What is still open

  • Introduction. Whether a bill is filed in January 2027, by whom, and whether it is the June text, the AMC rebrand or something narrower.
  • Who may deal with an AMC. The June draft's counterparty definition reads as business-only; Fortune and the April draft do not say so. Griffith says sandbox companies won't deal with the general public; § 8001(9) also refers to "the public at large".
  • The capital number. Bracketed in April, delegated in June. No fixed figure exists.
  • Whether stablecoins count as capital or cash. Neither draft mentions digital assets.
  • "Banking" versus "financial services." The text says banking; one report says financial services; the governor's July 2025 sandbox announcement, quoted by Ars Technica, named "financial services" as a target sector; and the subcommittee has named fintech. Where non-bank payments, lending or money transmission sit is unresolved.
  • Exemptions. Applicants list the code provisions they want waived. An applicable agency's refusal binds the committee (§ 8006(d)(4)). Nobody has said which provisions applicants will ask for; both Callahan and committee member Allan Kyle told Spotlight Delaware they could not foresee them.
  • Recognition elsewhere. Whether courts and regulators outside Delaware respect the shield. The D&O Diary raised this; the draft lets the committee make agreements with other regulators (§ 8012(c)).
  • Model provenance. A Delaware Business Times viewpoint notes the draft does not require the AMC to file what its model was trained on or where.
  • Oversight follow-up. Whether Delaware produces records, what the committee does next, and whether any federal bill follows.
  • Insurance. Whether any carrier writes an entity-only policy, and on what terms.
05

Driving forces

F1.
Agents already transact, and nobody is clearly on the hook when they get it wrong. At a June meeting, subcommittee chair Patrick Callahan said Morgan Stanley is already granting AI agents access to stock-trading platforms. He also said: "Technology companies will operate regardless. It is a problem for the ordinary Delawareans and counterparties on the other side of those transactions" (Spotlight Delaware). Mastercard's June 2026 launch describes payments "some only fractions of a cent" between agents. Pushes toward: a wrapper of some kind, somewhere.
F2.
Delaware's franchise is the economic engine, and the AMC is pitched partly as a revenue line. More than 2 million companies keep their legal home in Delaware, contributing more than $2 billion, about a third of state revenue (Spotlight Delaware). The Secretary of State said a new entity form would be "really a huge benefit to our state's revenues." The June draft sets a $1,000 annual tax per AMC. Pushes toward: introduction. Pulls against: the scrutiny that a revenue motive invites.
F3.
Capital, not personal liability, carries the risk. The shield holds only while the AMC is "adequately capitalized", which the drafts define with a going-concern test, an asset test and a cash floor. Undercapitalisation, fraud or willful violation, and acting outside purpose open the member to liability. Pushes toward: sponsors with balance sheets, meaning companies rather than individuals, and B2B use first.
F4.
The federal–state contest over who writes AI rules. The Oversight letter ties its request to "possible federal legislative efforts including proposals to appropriately limit state AI regulatory initiatives." A York University law professor told Bloomberg that "other states will likely move ahead with similar proposals" and that "a federal framework could help address concerns about … a regulatory race to the bottom" (via Ars Technica). Pushes toward: delay in Delaware. A copycat state stays possible.
F5.
Insurance is withdrawing from AI risk just as the AMC needs it. There are generative-AI exclusion endorsements and absolute AI exclusions, and buyers are "slow to take up" affirmative AI cover (Insurance Business). Pushes toward: a small, well-capitalised first cohort, or none.
F6.
The money rails are federalising on their own timetable. The stablecoin statute takes effect 18 January 2027. The OCC's final rule was published 23 October 2026, and its BSA, AML and sanctions rules come separately. Treasury proposed its issuance rule on 17 August 2026. Agent payment protocols settle almost entirely in dollar stablecoins: more than 99% of x402 value on Base over 30 days settled in USDC, per Fireblocks, citing agenteconomy.to. Pushes toward: agent commerce on regulated dollar rails whether or not a wrapper exists.
F7.
Autonomy claims run ahead of autonomy. An industry landscape (Anicca, November 2026) finds that "every large, verified figure in this field is a fee or a subscription charged to humans". It reports that the founder of one "run your company for you" platform said only about 10% of its companies had earned even $1. It also notes an unadjudicated class action alleging that one celebrated "AI-run" project was a human trading operation. Pushes toward: disclosure and logging as the credible core of any wrapper.
F8.
The physical stack and the labour line. An AMC owns no chips and no power. It rents both from the stack our compute financing and data-center power Outlooks track. At the firm level it is the extreme case of the substitution in AI, jobs and income to 2035, which notes that "the law still requires a named person to answer for what software decides."
06

The loop

Software now closes the loop inside companies. It senses, decides, acts and adjusts, and the open question of the Cybernetic Age is whether a manager that is not a person gets a recognised economic unit, the way the corporation once bundled human work and capital. The loop that decides it runs like this:

  1. 1.

    Agents already transact in software and on-chain (F1, F6). The volume is real, but most of the value is small.

  2. 2.

    Activity creates exposure without an owner. Counterparties need someone to sue. Builders want a shield. Both pressures point to legal personality.

  3. 3.

    Delaware proposes a wrapper (F2, F3): a single member, a capital floor, a log, disclosure, a sandbox and a kill switch, with banking excluded.

  4. 4.

    The wrapper draws scrutiny and pricing questions: a federal records request (F4), insurers writing AI out (F5), and lenders asking whom they lend to.

  5. 5.

    Activity goes to whichever rail is usable. Banked dollars are the only rail the draft's capital test plainly recognises. Payment stablecoins come under federal licensing from January 2027, and smart-contract settlement needs no legal personality at all. The draft excludes banking, so even a live AMC depends on someone else's rails.

  6. 6.

    What happens there feeds back. A failure on an unwrapped rail strengthens the case for a wrapper, and a failure inside the sandbox strengthens the case against one. Fortune's authors state the stakes: without "a careful, accountable" US home, "the activity will migrate offshore and onto anonymous infrastructure beyond the reach of any court."

The loop breaks if agent commerce stays a rounding error, as October's $274,000 suggests it still is. It also breaks if a single public incident inside the sandbox ends it.

07

Scenarios

Central odds are the simulation output. Ranges come from re-running the chain with every step at its adverse and then its favourable value (FD estimate).

ScenarioDec 2027RangeDec 2028RangeEarly markers
Live7%1–2130%9–63Bill filed in January 2027 with Chapter 80 intact; committee appointments published; application form posted (§ 8005(c)); a registration number disclosed to a counterparty
Enacted, not live26%13–3815%10–15Signed bill; no notice in the Register of Regulations; committee seats unfilled; no application form
Stalled54%37–5933%21–37No filing by spring 2027; Commission still "has questions"; rebrand without text
Dropped or blocked13%4–2722%6–43Public statement ending the effort; a federal bill with express preemption advancing; a damaging disclosure from the records request

Federal posture (Panel B): scrutiny only 74% / 59%; federal standards without reaching state entity law 18% / 28%; federal limits reaching entity laws 8% / 13%. Markers: a subpoena or hearing on the AMC; a federal bill naming state AI entity or liability laws; a federal statute that sets AI standards without touching state corporate law.

08

Timeline

WhenWhat to watch
9 Nov 2026Oversight records deadline
Nov–Dec 2026Any Delaware response, Oversight follow-up, or AI Commission meeting that resolves its "questions"
Jan 2027Stated target for introduction; a new General Assembly session
18 Jan 2027Federal stablecoin statute effective
By 30 Jun 2027End of the window for our introduction call
Enactment + up to 6 monthsImplementation; committee, rules and application form
Implementation + 6 monthsLast registration date that still allows a full 24-month test (FD estimate)
Implementation + 30 monthsSandbox ends
Enactment + 36 monthsAct expires unless extended
Final sandbox period + 6 monthsCommittee final report due
09

Who is affected

  • Members and sponsors. Under the June draft, a Delaware entity that capitalises the AMC, consents to Chancery, keeps records audit-ready and can "terminate" the agent on order. The shield depends on staying adequately capitalised and inside purpose.
  • Counterparties. Entities receiving the disclosures. They are deemed to accept Delaware jurisdiction and Chancery as exclusive forum. Their recovery may be limited to the AMC's assets and insurance.
  • Employees. An AMC needs none, but it has a member representative, a registered agent and, per Griffith, an attorney reviewing logs. Labour displacement is the firm-level edge of AI, jobs and income to 2035.
  • Insurers. D&O, cyber, CGL, tech E&O, crime and professional liability are all exposed (Insurance Business). Any AMC policy would be entity-only (D&O Diary). There is room for an E&S or MGA first mover.
  • Banks, payment networks and stablecoin issuers. The AMC cannot be a bank, but it needs a deposit account to meet its cash floor, and it pays on someone's network. Issuers come under federal licensing from 18 January 2027, with freeze and seize capability required (White House GENIUS fact sheet).
  • Labs and agent vendors. Their models are the manager. The draft requires the operating agreement to "summarize the structure, abilities, and training of the AI agent" (April § 51-205) but no filing of training provenance (Delaware Business Times viewpoint).
  • Delaware's franchise. New fees and a $1,000 annual tax per AMC on one side; brand and federal-relations risk on the other.
  • Federal overseers. The House Oversight Committee, and any agency whose rules an applicant asks to have waived only at state level. State waivers cannot waive federal law.
  • Advisors. Corporate counsel, registered agents, auditors and brokers. The June draft gives registered agents verification duties "for the reduction of risk of unlawful business purposes."

Who signs for the agent

A bank opening an account for a company still works from a rule that asks for a person. The federal customer due diligence rule, 31 CFR 1010.230, has a covered financial institution identify and verify each individual who owns 25% or more of a legal entity customer, and a single individual with significant responsibility to control, manage, or direct it (eCFR, 31 CFR 1010.230(d)(1)–(2), read 10 Nov 2026). When an agent-run company asks for credit, expect four questions: Who is the control person? Which entity holds the assets? Who signs? Who answers if the agent gets it wrong?

10

Routes

How an operation run mostly by software can exist, today and under a future AMC. Frontier Desk describes these; it does not recommend any of them, and nothing here is legal advice.

RouteExists today?Legal personalityWho is liableMoney railSource
Human-managed LLC or corporation running agentsYesYesThe entity, with officers and managers subject to ordinary lawBanked dollars, cards, processors; stablecoins via licensed providersStatus quo; Harvard Business Services ("nothing changes")
Wyoming DAO LLCYesYes (an LLC)LLC rules, as modified by the supplement; duties may be defined, reduced or eliminatedOften on-chain; articles must give a public smart-contract identifierW.S. 17-31-104, -106; Wyoming SoS FAQ
Vermont blockchain-based LLCYesYes (an LLC)LLC rulesLedger-based governance permitted11 V.S.A. § 4173
Delaware AMC in the sandboxNo (proposed)Yes, "distinct from its member"The AMC; member shielded while adequately capitalised, absent fraud or willful violationMust hold cash or cash equivalents ≥ minimum capital; banking excludedJune draft
Offshore or anonymous infrastructureExistsVariesOften no reachable defendantVariesFortune's own argument for the AMC
Pure smart contract or DeFi, no wrapperExistsNoneUnsettled; whoever a court can reachStablecoins and on-chain settlement (x402, for example)Coinbase x402 docs; Fireblocks, 3 Nov 2026 (data: agenteconomy.to)

Note on Wyoming: articles must state "how the decentralized autonomous organization shall be managed by the members, including to what extent the management will be conducted algorithmically." That is the closest existing US statutory text to a non-human manager, but it stays a members' LLC.

11

Key assumptions

AssumptionBreaks if
Delaware still intends to file in 2027The governor, Secretary of State or AI Commission says publicly it will not, or the 2027 session passes with no filing
The June text is the base for any billA filed bill drops Chapter 80 or makes AMCs formable outside a sandbox
A three-fifths vote is requiredA filed bill drops the tax or fee provisions
The banking exclusion holdsA filed text removes it or narrows it to deposit-taking only
Federal action stays at records and hearings through 2027A subpoena, a hearing on the AMC, or a bill with express preemption advances
Insurers stay cautiousA named carrier or MGA announces cover written for AI-managed entities
Agent payment value stays smallFireblocks, Allium or a network reports sustained monthly agent-payment value an order of magnitude above October 2026
Copycat states wait for DelawareAnother state files an AI-managed entity bill first
12

Signposts

Checked 2026-11-09.

SignpostNowThresholdMoves odds towardChecked
Delaware answer to OversightNone publicDocuments produced or a written response made publicLive/Enacted if routine; Dropped if damaging2026-11-09
Bill filedNoneAny bill creating AMC or AIC in legis.delaware.govEnacted, Live2026-11-09
AI Commission "questions"Open (30 Oct)Commission votes to forward the draftEnacted2026-11-09
Name in filed textAMC in reporting; AIC in draftsFiled bill uses AMCNeutral, confirms continuity2026-11-09
Capital figureBracketed / delegatedFixed dollar number in filed textLive (clarity)2026-11-09
Banking exclusionIn both draftsRemoved or narrowedFederal limits (draws scrutiny)2026-11-09
Federal bill on state AI-entity lawsNone foundIntroduced on congress.govDropped or blocked2026-11-09
Copycat stateNone foundA bill in another stateFederal limits; competitive pull on Delaware2026-11-09
Insurer productNone foundNamed product for AI-managed entitiesLive2026-11-09
Stablecoin rulesOCC final; Treasury proposedTreasury final by 18 Jan 2027Rails ready, which is wrapper-neutral2026-11-09
Agent payment value$274,000 in Oct 2026 (x402)Sustained at $5M a month or morePressure for a wrapper2026-11-09
13

Calls

Each call is dated, carries odds and a range, and names the public record that settles it. We score each one with the Brier score when it resolves. All odds are FD estimates. Calls marked † come from the simulation; the rest are single-step judgments with the low–high range shown.

#CallResolvesOddsSettled by
1A public record shows Delaware has produced documents to, or sent a written response to, the House Oversight Committee on the AIC/AMC request30 Nov 202645% (30–60)oversight.house.gov press releases; Delaware Governor's newsroom (news.delaware.gov); Delaware Public Media or WHYY reporting of the response
2The House Oversight Committee issues a subpoena to Delaware concerning the AIC/AMC31 Mar 202710% (4–20)oversight.house.gov
3†A bill creating an AMC, AIC or equivalent AI-managed entity sandbox is introduced in the Delaware General Assembly30 Jun 202760% (41–78)legis.delaware.gov bill search
4If call 3 resolves yes, the introduced text keeps an exclusion for "the business of banking" (void if no bill)30 Jun 202790% (80–97)Bill text on legis.delaware.gov
5If call 3 resolves yes, the introduced text states a fixed dollar minimum capital amount rather than delegating it (void if no bill)30 Jun 202735% (20–50)Bill text on legis.delaware.gov
6†The Governor signs an AMC/AIC sandbox act31 Dec 202733% (14–59)legis.delaware.gov bill status
7†A sandbox-authorised AMC/AIC is issued a registration number31 Dec 20277% (1–21)Delaware Secretary of State / Division of Corporations notice, or a Sandbox Committee interim report under § 8013
8†A sandbox-authorised AMC/AIC is issued a registration number31 Dec 202830% (9–63)Same as call 7
9A legislature in a state other than Delaware has a bill introduced creating an entity whose business is managed by an AI agent31 Dec 202740% (25–55)That state's legislature website
10A bill introduced in Congress expressly preempts or limits state laws creating AI-managed entities or AI liability shields31 Dec 202730% (15–45)congress.gov
11Treasury publishes a final rule implementing GENIUS Act section 3 (issuance, offer and sale) in the Federal Register18 Jan 202755% (35–75)federalregister.gov
12A crypto market-structure bill becomes law31 Dec 202725% (15–35)congress.gov public law list (Kalshi KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-27JAN-28 as cross-check)
13A named insurer or MGA announces cover written for AI-managed entities (AMC/AIC)31 Dec 202720% (8–35)The insurer's own announcement; trade press (Insurance Business)

Market overlay (checked 9 Nov 2026 against Kalshi's public API; no authentication):

Our callKalshi marketMidMatch quality
12, crypto market-structure law by end-2027KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-27JAN-28 ("before Jan 1, 2028")21.5¢ (bid 21 / ask 22)basis. Ours 25%, market about 21.5%
10, federal limits on state AI-entity lawsKXUSAIREGULATOR-28JAN01-28JAN01 ("commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2028")66.5¢ (62 / 71); volume about 439thematic, thin. Different event; not a preemption market
10KXAIBILL-26JUN-27JAN01 (multi-issue federal AI framework law before 1 Jan 2027)1.5¢ (1 / 2)thematic. Shorter horizon; different scope
Panel BKXAIDUTYOFCARE-26SEP-28JAN01 (AI catastrophic-risk duty of care law before 2028)44¢ (40 / 48); volume about 4thematic, thin
Panel BKXAIKILLSWITCH-26SEP-28JAN01 (AI kill switch law before 2028)44.5¢ (41 / 48); volume about 101thematic, thin
F2KXDEFRANCHISETAX-27JUL30-T1.344 (Delaware FY2027 franchise-tax receipts above $1.344B)53.5¢ (53 / 54); volume 100thematic. FY2027 cannot include AMC revenue
3, 6, 7, 8 (Delaware AMC)No series found; KXDELAWAREINCORP has no markets listed—no_liquid_match
13 (insurance), 4–5 (bill text)None found—no_liquid_match
1, 2, 9, 11 (Oversight response, subpoena, copycat state, Treasury GENIUS §3 rule)None found—no_liquid_match

The overlay finding repeats what our other Outlooks found. Markets price federal policy clocks, but they do not price how a new entity form would be built, financed or insured. CME futures were not checked.

14

Questions to test this

  1. 1. If the June text were filed tomorrow, which named Delaware entity would apply first, for what B2B use, and which code provision would it ask to have waived?
  2. 2. Can an AMC open a deposit account? Which bank's know-your-customer process accepts an entity whose manager is software and whose member representative is the only natural person?
  3. 3. Does a payment-stablecoin balance count toward "cash and cash equivalents" under the capital test? If not, how does an agent that pays in USDC stay adequately capitalised?
  4. 4. What would an insurer need to see in the log to write entity-only cover, and who reviews it?
  5. 5. Will courts outside Delaware respect the shield when a counterparty in another state sues the member?
  6. 6. Does the counterparty definition bar dealings with individuals, or only with individuals as test counterparties?
  7. 7. If a federal bill limits state AI rules, would it reach an entity statute, which is corporate law, or only conduct rules?
  8. 8. What happens to an AMC's ongoing obligations when the sandbox ends, given the duty to "continue to fulfill those duties or arrange for another person" (§ 8009(c))?
  9. 9. Who owns the AMC's log and its outputs, given that copyright "does not extend to purely AI-generated material" (US Copyright Office, cited in our ownership guide)?
  10. 10. Would a lender in the lower-middle-market private credit segment, where lending is first-lien and often equity-linked, lend to an AMC at all, or only to its member?
15

Sources and method

All accessed 9 Nov 2026.

  1. 1. Draft "Artificially Intelligent Company Act" (Chapter 51), 34 pp., file metadata 2 Apr 2026. https://publicmeetings.delaware.gov/Document/85240_Document.pdf (record)
  2. 2. Draft House Bill, "Artificial Intelligence Regulatory Sandbox Program and the Artificial Intelligence Company Act", 153rd GA, footer "Draft: 06/02/2026", 36 pp. https://spotlightdelaware.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/HB-re-Artificial-Intelligence-Regulatory-Sandbox-Company-1.pdf (record)
  3. 3. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, letter to Gov. Meyer, 26 Oct 2026. https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Letter-to-Delaware-re-AIC_10.26.26.pdf (record)
  4. 4. House Oversight press release, "Comer Investigates Potential for Harm, Lack of Transparency in Delaware Initiative…". https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-investigates-potential-for-harm-lack-of-transparency-in-delaware-initiative-to-create-new-artificial-intelligence-companies/ (party)
  5. 5. J. Nay and C. Patibanda-Sanchez, Fortune, 14 Jul 2026. https://fortune.com/2026/07/14/exclusive-delaware-ai-agents-legal-entity-proposal-llc-pbc/ (party)
  6. 6. N. Weiss, Spotlight Delaware, 30 Jun 2026. https://spotlightdelaware.org/2026/06/30/delaware-committee-drafts-plan-to-test-companies-run-by-ai/ (party)
  7. 7. Harvard Business Services, "Delaware Is Considering a New Kind of AI Company". https://www.delawareinc.com/blog/delaware-proposes-new-ai-entity/ (crowd)
  8. 8. S. Mueller, WHYY, 30 Sep 2026. https://whyy.org/articles/delaware-artificial-intelligence-companies-state-proposal/ (party)
  9. 9. WHYY, 27 Oct 2026. https://whyy.org/articles/delaware-ai-companies-us-house-comer-oversight/ (party)
  10. 10. B. Bouthier, Delaware Public Media, 30 Oct 2026. https://www.delawarepublic.org/politics-government/2026-10-30/congressional-oversight-committee-questions-delawares-work-on-artificial-intelligence-companies (party)
  11. 11. Ars Technica, 27 Oct 2026. https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/10/no-human-at-the-helm-delaware-plan-would-let-ai-agents-run-entire-businesses/ (party/crowd)
  12. 12. Bloomberg Law, Delaware Brief, 7 Oct 2026 (PDF hosted by University of Delaware). https://bpb-us-w2.wpmucdn.com/sites.udel.edu/dist/8/12944/files/2026/10/Legal-Personhood-for-AI-Debated-in-Delaware_-Delaware-Brief.pdf (crowd)
  13. 13. Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance, "AI, Agentic Companies, Future of Corporate Governance", 8 Nov 2026. https://weinberg.udel.edu/rise-of-agentic-companies/ (party)
  14. 14. Weinberg Center event page, 6 Oct 2026. https://weinberg.udel.edu/ai-agentic-companies-future-of-corporate-governance/ (party)
  15. 15. Delaware Business Times, guest viewpoint, 28 Oct 2026. https://delawarebusinesstimes.com/news/vwpt-minista-jazz-ai/ (crowd)
  16. 16. M. Sellers, Insurance Business, 27 Oct 2026. https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/breaking-news/delaware-wants-to-let-ai-run-entire-companies-what-it-means-for-insurers-595079.aspx (crowd)
  17. 17. The D&O Diary, 28 Jul 2026. https://www.dandodiary.com/2026/07/articles/artificial-intelligence/brave-new-world-delawares-proposed-new-artificial-intelligence-company/ (crowd)
  18. 18. aic.inc, an unofficial advocacy and waitlist site, not the State of Delaware. https://aic.inc/ (crowd; not relied on for facts)
  19. 19. Delaware HJR 7 bill detail. https://legis.delaware.gov/BillDetail/142629 (record)
  20. 20. Delaware AI Commission, 2025 Annual Report. https://ai.delaware.gov/wp-content/blogs.dir/229/files/sites/229/2025/12/Delaware-Artificial-Intelligence-Commission-Annual-Report-2025.pdf (record)
  21. 21. Wyoming Statutes Title 17, ch. 31 (DAO Supplement) and ch. 32 (DUNA). https://wyoleg.gov/statutes/compress/title17.pdf (record)
  22. 22. Wyoming Secretary of State, DAO FAQ. https://sos.wyo.gov/Business/Docs/DAOs_FAQs.pdf (party)
  23. 23. Vermont, 11 V.S.A. § 4173. https://legislature.vermont.gov/statutes/section/11/025/04173 (record)
  24. 24. OCC Bulletin 2026-50, GENIUS Act final rule. https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/bulletins/2026/bulletin-2026-50.html (record)
  25. 25. Federal Register 2026-21706, 23 Oct 2026. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/10/23/2026-21706/implementing-the-guiding-and-establishing-national-innovation-for-us-stablecoins-act-for-the (record)
  26. 26. US Treasury press release sb0605, 17 Aug 2026. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0605 (record)
  27. 27. Mayer Brown, "OCC Finalizes GENIUS Act Rulemaking", Nov 2026. https://www.mayerbrown.com/en/insights/publications/2026/11/occ-finalizes-genius-act-rulemaking (crowd)
  28. 28. White House GENIUS Act fact sheet, Jul 2025. https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/07/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-signs-genius-act-into-law/ (party)
  29. 29. I. Turbahn, Fireblocks, "The Agent Economy by the Numbers", 3 Nov 2026 (x402 figures from agenteconomy.to). https://www.fireblocks.com/blog/agent-economy-numbers-x402-data (party). Secondary: Blockchain.News, https://blockchain.news/news/agent-economy-data-points-show-growth-but-payment-metrics-remain-noisy
  30. 30. Coinbase Developer Platform, x402 documentation. https://docs.cdp.coinbase.com/x402/welcome (party)
  31. 31. Mastercard, Agent Pay for Machines, 10 Jun 2026. https://investor.mastercard.com/investor-news/investor-news-details/2026/Mastercard-Launches-Agent-Pay-for-Machines-to-Unlock-Super-Fast-Always-On-Payments/default.aspx (party)
  32. 32. Anicca, "The Zero-Human Company Landscape", Nov 2026. https://aniccaai.com/blog/zero-human-company-landscape (crowd)
  33. 33. Kalshi public market data (API v2), 9 Nov 2026. https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE (and the series named in the overlay) (crowd)
  34. 34. Frontier Desk Outlooks: company-data, compute financing, data-center power, private credit, AI jobs and income; guide, Do you own what your AI tools produce; Distributed Risk, Machine-speed cyber.

Method. Readings are taken from the sources above and graded record, party or crowd. Where sources conflict, both are shown: the name, liability wording, the 30-month clock, page count, public dealing, and banking against financial services.

Odds. Odds come from a chained-step simulation, odds_sim.py, over 200,000 paths with seed 20261109. Each step has a low, central and high value. For each path, a probability is drawn from a triangular distribution over those values, and then the outcome is drawn. All step values are FD estimates. The Delaware chain:

  • federal block before Dec 2027: 2 / 5 / 10%;
  • introduced by 30 Jun 2027: 45 / 65 / 80%;
  • signed by Dec 2027 if introduced: 35 / 55 / 75%;
  • first registration by Dec 2027 if enacted: 8 / 20 / 35%;
  • first registration by Dec 2028 if enacted in 2027 but not yet live: 55 / 75 / 90%;
  • dropped by Dec 2027 if not enacted: 5 / 12 / 22%;
  • additional federal block in 2028: 2 / 5 / 10%;
  • enacted in 2028 if stalled: 10 / 25 / 40%;
  • first registration by Dec 2028 if enacted in 2028: 15 / 35 / 55%;
  • dropped in 2028 if still stalled: 5 / 12 / 22%.

The federal chain:

  • any federal AI statute by Dec 2027: 12 / 25 / 40%;
  • one arriving during 2028 if none yet: 10 / 20 / 32%;
  • share of such statutes that reach state AI-entity laws: 15 / 30 / 50%.

Ranges re-run the chain with every step at its adverse and then its favourable value. Single-step calls carry the judgment and range directly. Prediction-market prices are shown next to our odds, never blended into them.

Who authored what. This draft's odds are Frontier Desk research estimates (scored as p_human). Frontier Desk's event-trading desk did not write it, and no model-generated probability (p_llm) is attached. One can be added after the calls are published and ingested.

Frontier Desk is an advisor, not a broker. Nothing on this page is legal, tax or investment advice.